Downtown S.F.’s condo market is cratering, with units selling at reduced prices

San Francisco’s listless, post-COVID restoration is hammering the downtown rental market, with house owners more and more prepared to promote at a reduction amid ongoing tech layoffs and workplace closures, in accordance with a brand new report from the actual property brokerage Compass.

Median rental gross sales costs within the better downtown and South of Market district — which incorporates Civic Middle, SoMa, Mission Bay, Yerba Buena and South Seaside — are down 16.5% from a 12 months in the past, in accordance with the report. Since December of final 12 months, the rental median gross sales worth dropped from $1.475 million to $1.23 million in these neighborhoods.

The drop within the median costs in downtown neighborhoods was double that of different components of town. Outdoors of downtown, median worth of condos dropped 7% within the final 12 months, whereas single household houses dropped 7.5%.

Whereas actual property brokerages are usually rosy of their advertising supplies, the Compass report doesn’t sugarcoat the present scenario. It concludes that the drop in demand is being pushed by “a triple whammy of financial, demographic and quality-of-life points.”

“I knew that market phase had weakened however I didn’t notice the diploma to which issues had modified,” mentioned Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Compass. “It was a bit surprising.”

The issues are each macro and micro.

On the nationwide stage you’ve got a declining inventory market, rising rates of interest and inflation. In the meantime downtown San Francisco is lagging different cities in workplace occupancy, and the dearth of foot visitors is crippling small enterprise and making the streets really feel much less secure. The highrise housing that sprouted South of Market Avenue over the past 20 years was meant to serve the a whole lot of 1000’s of employees who flooded into town every morning. With these jobs gone distant, demand for housing has waned.

“San Francisco went from being the most well liked workplace market on the earth to only in regards to the weakest,” mentioned Carlisle.

Two latest reviews of gross sales at Lumina, a two-tower luxurious complicated South of Market, present how the market has shifted, in accordance with an evaluation by Socketsite, an internet publication that tracks San Francisco actual property.

The primary includes a 1,791 sq. foot, three-bedroom, three-bath unit on the thirty second flooring of the tower at 338 Principal St. That unit offered for $3.25 million in Might of 2016 after which traded once more in August of 2019 for $3.5 million. In September of this 12 months it hit the block once more with an inventory worth of $3.15 million, earlier than lastly promoting in November for $2.68 million, a drop of 23.4% since 2019.

In the meantime a two-bedroom unit in the identical tower is being marketed at $2.6 million, which, if it sells at that worth, would symbolize a 21% lower from its 2016 worth of $3.295 million.

Whereas the present market presents a possibility for consumers, the rise of rates of interest to a 20-year excessive offsets no matter financial savings may be gained by means of the cheaper price level, Carlisle mentioned. However for consumers with money for a down cost, or these prepared to gamble that they may be capable to refinance at a decrease rate of interest down the street, there are alternatives.

“It is a nice time for consumers to barter extraordinarily aggressively,” he mentioned. “For those who see a unit you want simply ignore the asking worth and determine what you’re prepared to pay for it. There are quite a lot of sellers who simply wish to transfer on. If they can shut a deal, they may, even whether it is far under expectations.”

Realtor Kevin Birmingham of Park North Actual Property mentioned the report is in keeping with what he’s seeing across the metropolis. He simply offered one rental within the Twin Peaks space that was marketed at $695,000. It closed at $680,000. The vendor anticipated to get $800,000.

As such, many would-be sellers need to lease their models. “Itemizing are getting withdrawn and going straight onto the rental market,” Birmingham mentioned.

Gregg Lynn of Sotheby’s Worldwide Realty, who focuses on the luxurious rental market, mentioned the optimism of 2021 — when San Franciscans had been getting vaccinated and beginning to really feel snug in crowds once more — has given was to uncertainty.

Some households who purchased earlier than the pandemic anticipating to separate their time between San Francisco and wine nation or Tahoe have discovered they don’t have a lot purpose to return to town. Others purchased downtown condos to be close to their kids and grandchildren, solely to have their offspring depart town.

“A number of our shoppers will not be utilizing their condos as a lot as they thought they’d,” he mentioned.

J.Okay. Dineen is a San Francisco Chronicle employees author. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @sfjkdineen


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