One of many market’s largest skeptics goes again to his previous methods.
Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson cautioned that the rally that has enveloped markets in latest weeks is lengthy within the tooth and overdue for a breather.
“As predicted, falling rates of interest on the again finish have led to modest, additional beneficial properties for this bear market rally,” Wilson wrote in a brand new notice on Monday. “Nevertheless, with final week’s value motion, the S&P 500 is now proper into our authentic tactical goal vary of 4000-4150. Whereas the index has modestly exceeded its 200-day transferring common and the breadth continues to develop, the downtrend from the start of the yr stays in place. This makes the risk-reward of taking part in for extra upside fairly poor at this level, and we are actually sellers once more.”
A number of weeks in the past, Wilson appropriately predicted the market’s bounce. And after a brutal yr for buyers, the rally has been a lot welcomed.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are up greater than 6% and seven%, respectively, up to now month whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Common (^DJI) has tacked on 5%.
Good points have been spurred by a pullback within the U.S. greenback, indicators of peak inflation, and a Federal Reserve that could be on the precipice of slowing the tempo of rate of interest hikes.
However a hotter-than-expected November jobs report final week — which calls into query the potential for a extra dovish Fed — and renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China have dented that bullish thesis.
“Keep defensively oriented (Healthcare, Utilities, Staples) as charges are more likely to fall additional into subsequent yr as development and inflation proceed to gradual,” Wilson suggested. “Progress shares are unlikely to profit from falling charges from right here given threat to earnings, particularly for tech and consumer-oriented companies that are giant weights in development indices.”
Different strategists on Wall Avenue are additionally staying cautious on shares to spherical out 2022.
Goldman Sachs mentioned it sees zero earnings development for S&P 500 firms subsequent yr and 0 appreciation for the benchmark index.
“We stay comparatively defensive for the three-month horizon with additional headwinds from rising actual yields seemingly and lingering development uncertainty,” Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann mentioned.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Comply with Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
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