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It took 13 weeks, however we lastly have our first group eradicated from playoff rivalry this yr and to nobody’s shock, that group is the Houston Texans (the Bears have been additionally eradicated on Sunday, however the Texans gained the dignity of formally being the primary group).

Houston, you could have an issue and your drawback is that the Texans are the worst group in soccer this yr and their loss on Sunday just about sums up every little thing that is incorrect with them. The Texans did not hand over a single offensive landing to the Browns in Week 13, and but, they nonetheless someway managed to lose by 13 factors, which is so unhealthy that it is truly spectacular. 

One factor I do know for certain is that I will not be selecting the Texans to win any of their remaining video games, and crap, now that I’ve informed you that, which means I’ve now spoiled certainly one of my picks for Week 14, as a result of now you recognize that I am selecting the Texans to lose to the Cowboys. I do not wish to spoil any extra of my picks, so let’s hurry up and get to the Week 14 picks. 

Truly, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder that you may try the weekly picks from each NFL professional by clicking right here. For those who do not click on over, I will not be offended. Nevertheless, I shall be offended when you do not join’s NFL publication, which I pump out 4 days per week. I even have a publication about what it is like to put in writing newsletters, however I will not ask you to subscribe to that one.

As for the soccer publication, if you wish to subscribe, all you must do is click on right here and enter your electronic mail tackle. It takes 9.3 seconds to enroll and when you’re questioning how I do know that, it is as a result of I bought bored and timed it as soon as. One factor that is not boring is the podcast the early picks podcast that I recorded with Will Brinson this week. You will discover out our 4 favourite early picks for Week 14 by listening beneath. 

Alright, I feel that is all of the self-promotion I’ve for the week. Let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 14 Picks

Minnesota (10-2) at Detroit (5-7)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Featured Recreation | Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

When two division rivals play one another for the second time in a season, I normally throw the outcomes of the primary sport out the window, however I am scripting this choose from a windowless closet, so I can not do this, which might be for the most effective, as a result of I feel that first sport provides us a small trace of what is going on to occur this time round.

In that first sport, the Lions jumped out to a 14-0 lead earlier than doing what you’d count on the Lions to do in that state of affairs: Totally imploding and shedding. The Lions shot themselves within the foot so many instances in that sport that you just’d suppose they might’ve have run out of bullets and even toes, however nope, they only saved doing it. 

They missed two area targets within the first sport, they’d two failed fourth downs and Jared Goff threw an interception within the ultimate minute that iced the sport. Nobody is best at gifting away video games than the Lions and it actually felt like they gave away the primary sport. Nevertheless, that was the previous Lions. Now, the Vikings shall be coping with the brand new Lions, who’re out of the blue one of many hottest groups within the NFL. 

The brand new Lions do not blow video games, until you depend the Buffalo loss on Thanksgiving. OK, the brand new Lions do blow video games, however not as usually because the previous Lions. 

The final 4 video games between these two groups have been determined by a mean 2.5 factors per sport, so I absolutely count on issues to get loopy as soon as once more on Sunday and loopy can be the Lions truly holding on to beat a superb group at dwelling. So sure, I am selecting the Lions right here, however that is arguably a superb factor for the Vikings since I’ve whiffed on 4 straight video games involving Minnesota. I want this streak to finish. Do not let me down Lions. 

I feel we would see a shootout right here and that is as a result of we’ve the the group that is given up probably the most factors within the NFL this yr (Lions) going up towards the group that is surrendering probably the most passing yards per sport (Vikings). 

The choose: Lions 34-31 over Vikings

Baltimore (8-4) at Pittsburgh (5-7)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Featured Recreation | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

For those who would have requested me 5 weeks in the past who I believed was going to win this sport, I most likely would’ve picked the Ravens by seven touchdowns. I am unsure why you’d have requested me about this sport again then, however I am a pleasant particular person, so I’d have answered your query even when I believed it was bizarre. 

After 9 weeks of play, the Steelers have been 2-6 and it seemed like they have been going toe-to-toe with the Texans for the unofficial title of worst group within the AFC. As for the Ravens, they have been 6-3 after 10 weeks they usually simply might have been 9-0 with all three losses coming by 4 factors or much less. Nevertheless, issues have barely modified over the previous few weeks. On the Steelers’ finish, they bought T.J. Watt again in Week 10 they usually’ve been almost unbeatable ever since. Watt is without doubt one of the most dominant gamers within the NFL and since his return, the Steelers have gone 3-1, which makes them 4-1 on the season in any sport the place Watt performs. If the NFL was honest, it might solely depend the video games this season that Watt has performed and the Steelers can be within the thick of the playoff hunt, however the NFL is not honest and nobody is aware of that greater than the Ravens, who will probably be taking part in with out Lamar Jackson on Sunday. 

Usually, when a beginning QB goes down, that is when a group will hit the panic button, however I do not suppose that would be the case for Baltimore. The Ravens have Tyler Huntley to take his place and Huntley is just like the store-brand Lamar Jackson, and let me simply say, that is not essentially an insult. For those who’ve ever had store-brand Froot Loops, then you recognize that typically the store-brand is best than the nationwide model and Huntley has the expertise to be store-brand Froot Loops. 

Huntley is principally a mini-me model of Lamar Jackson and based mostly on what he did in 4 begins final yr, he may truly have the ability to present a spark for a Ravens offense that is been in a rut over the previous few weeks.

I feel we’ll see a minor drop-off from the Ravens offense with out Jackson, however I additionally suppose that Huntley performs properly sufficient to steer Baltimore to a win. 

The choose: Ravens 20-17 over Steelers. 

Tampa Bay (6-6) at San Francisco (8-4)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Featured Recreation | San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This sport was presupposed to be giving us Tom Brady towards Jimmy Garoppolo for the FIRST TIME ever, however apparently, that is an excessive amount of handsomeness on the sphere at one time, so the Soccer Gods determined to not let it occur. With Garoppolo now out for the season, we’ll as a substitute be getting Brady towards Brock Purdy. We’re getting a QB who made his first profession begin 21 years in the past towards a QB who shall be making his first profession begin on Sunday. 

We’re getting a QB who has seven Tremendous Bowl rings towards a QB who was actually chosen with the ultimate choose within the 2022 NFL Draft. The ultimate participant taken within the draft is called “Mr. Irrelevant” and I am guessing that is as a result of they nearly all the time find yourself having an irrelevant NFL profession. 

For those who’re a seventh-round choose making an attempt to play quarterback within the NFL, the deck is fairly stacked towards you. Over the previous 15 years, there have been precisely 26 quarterbacks taken within the seventh-round and of these 26 quarterbacks, solely six of them ended up beginning a sport and people six quarterbacks have mixed to go 17-35. Trevor Siemian is carrying a whole lot of the load there with a profession file of 13-17 and when you do not embody him, then the file for seventh-round draft picks drops to 4-18 over the previous 15 years. 

Purdy truly seemed purdy good (HA HA) towards the Dolphins, going 25 of 37 for 210 yards and two touchdowns, however that was towards a protection that wasn’t ready to face him. The Buccaneers shall be ready to face him and he won’t be catching them unexpectedly. 

The one upside for Purdy is that he is in an offensive system the place almost any QB can thrive. Because of Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers offense is actually a self-driving automotive that may operate with anybody behind the wheel. The one means it would not work is that if the motive force someway crashes it and that is what I am afraid may occur with a seventh-round choose behind the wheel. 

Additionally, I ought to most likely level out that Tom Brady has by no means misplaced in a sport the place the opposing QB was making his first profession begin. 

Since Purdy is a Mr. Irrelevant, I feel it solely is sensible right here to foretell that the sport goes to be gained by one other Mr. Irrelevant: Ryan Succop. The Buccaneers kicker was the ultimate choose of the 2009 NFL Draft and because the most profitable Mr. Irrelevant in historical past, I will say he continues that success by kicking the Bucs to an upset win on Sunday. 

The choose: Buccaneers 23-20 over 49ers

Miami (8-4) at L.A. Chargers (6-6)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Featured Recreation | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

If I’ve discovered one factor about Chargers followers over the previous 48 hours, it is that I feel they’ve all given up on Brandon Staley. As a matter of reality, I am fairly certain that “hearth Brandon Staley” was trending on Twitter after the Chargers misplaced to the Raiders. 

I am unsure the Chargers must be making giant organizational choices based mostly on what they learn on Twitter, however I’ve to say, these followers are fairly persuasive. Not solely do they wish to see Staley canned, however additionally they know who they wish to substitute him: Sean Payton. 

One motive followers are so upset with Staley is as a result of the Chargers have not fairly lived as much as expectations this yr. The Chargers have been presupposed to be contending for an AFC West title, however as a substitute, they’re sitting at 6-6, a full three video games behind the Chiefs. 

One motive they’ve struggled is as a result of their protection cannot cease the run. And after I say their protection cannot cease the run, I imply that they’re actually the worst group at stopping the run in additional than 60 years. They’re giving up greater than 5.4 yards per carry which is greater than another group since 1960. 

The issue for Staley is that he is presupposed to be a defensive mastermind, however I am unsure you are allowed to have that title when you’re on a listing like this. I imply, the 1933 Cincinnati Reds have been so unhealthy that they folded after two seasons, which is type of a bizarre coincidence, as a result of on the fee issues are going, Staley may solely final two seasons with the Chargers. 

Fortuitously for Staley, if there’s one group that may not have the ability to run the ball on the Chargers, it is Miami. The Dolphins are averaging simply 89.7 yards per sport on the bottom, which makes them certainly one of simply 5 groups averaging underneath 100 yards per sport for the season. Additionally they have the fifth-worst yards per carry fee within the NFL. If the Chargers protection cannot decelerate the Dolphins’ dashing assault, then Staley may simply wish to go forward and name it quits. 

If I do know one factor concerning the Chargers, it is that they like to tease their followers and an enormous tease can be beating the Dolphins this week solely to lose all that momentum by shedding subsequent week, in order that’s precisely what I will say occurs. 

The choose: Chargers 30-27 over Dolphins

New England (6-6) at Arizona (4-8)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Featured Recreation | Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots

If I’ve discovered one factor concerning the Patriots this season, it is that the important thing to beating them is to have a cellular quarterback. Invoice Belichick is arguably the most effective defensive thoughts in NFL historical past, however once you throw a cellular quarterback at him, it is like he forgets coach. In three video games this season towards cellular quarterbacks, New England has gone 0-3 and you recognize what, let’s go forward and shortly recount how the Patriots’ protection fared in every of these video games: 

  • Week 3: Ravens 37-26 over Patriots. Lamar Jackson throws for 218 yards and 4 touchdowns whereas including one other 107 yards on the bottom with a dashing landing. 
  • Week 6: Bears 33-14 over Patriots. Justin Fields throws for 179 yards and a landing whereas including one other 82 yards on the bottom with a dashing landing. 
  • Week 13: Payments 24-10 over Patriots. Josh Allen throws for 222 yards and two touchdowns whereas including one other 20 yards dashing on the bottom.  

In every sport, the quarterback’s capacity to run the ball opened issues up on the bottom and the Patriots ended up surrendering a mean of 187.7 rush yards per sport in these three losses. What this implies is that Kyler Murray might give New England suits, however that is provided that he is not throwing his personal suits. 

One factor that makes this sport exhausting to select is that I am unsure which quarterback is extra pissed off proper now. On one hand, you could have Murray, who will yell at anybody and everybody when he will get pissed off. 

Murray yelling at Kliff Kingsbury? We have seen loads of that this yr. 

Nevertheless, it isn’t simply Kingsbury who’s been yelled at by Murray. He is additionally expressed frustrations with DeAndre Hopkins. 

After all, the one particular person extra pissed off than Murray along with his offense proper now is perhaps Mac Jones. 

So we’ve two pissed off quarterbacks going at it on Monday evening in a sport the place the man who will get extra pissed off might be going to lose. Attributable to the truth that the Patriots can not seem to cease cellular quarterbacks, I will say Belichick finally ends up getting pissed off, however ultimately, I will say that Kliff Kingsbury finally ends up as probably the most pissed off man on the sphere as a result of his group goes to discover a approach to lose one other shut sport. 

The choose: Patriots 19-16 over Cardinals

NFL Week 14 picks: All the remainder

Raiders 27-17 over Rams
Bengals 30-20 over Browns
Payments 27-20 over Jets|
Cowboys 31-17 over Texans
Titans 24-16 over Jaguars
Eagles 34-24 over Giants
Chiefs 24-13 over Broncos
Seahawks 26-23 over Panthers

BYES: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Saints, Commanders, Colts

Final Week 

Finest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Bengals would beat the Chiefs by precisely three factors and guess what occurred? The Bengals beat the Chiefs by precisely three factors. In relation to selecting Chiefs video games, there are solely two guidelines: If they are not taking part in the Bengals, you choose them to win. In the event that they ARE taking part in the Bengals, you choose them to lose. It is that straightforward. For the reason that begin of the 2019 season, Mahomes has a file of 33-4 within the months of November, December and January: He is 0-3 towards the Bengals and 33-1 towards everybody else. 

Worst choose: I solely missed three picks in Week 13, however I will not be taking a victory lap and that is as a result of if I attempt to take one, I am going to journey over my very own toes and fall flat on my face, type of like I did with all my upset picks. Final week, I predicted that we would see three large upsets in Week 13 — Titans over Eagles, Jets over Vikings and Dolphins over 49ers — and each single a kind of predictions backfired on me. The worst half is not that I bought the picks incorrect, it is how I bought them incorrect. The Titans forgot that A.J. Brown existed, the Dolphins could not beat a rookie seventh-round QB who was taking part in the primary sport of his profession and the Jets had THREE possibilities to attain from the one-yard line with underneath two minutes left to play they usually could not do it. And because you’re now most likely questioning, sure, I did cry myself to sleep on Sunday evening. 

Lastly, when you guys have ever questioned which groups I am truly good at selecting, here is a fast take a look at my greatest and worst groups with regards to picks this yr. 

Groups I am 11-1 selecting this yr (Straight up): Chiefs.
Longest successful streak: Chiefs (9 straight video games picked appropriately)

Crew I have been the worst at selecting this yr (Straight up): Raiders (4-8).
Longest shedding streak: Vikings (4 straight video games picked incorrectly) 

Each different group is someplace within the center. 

Picks File

Straight up in Week 13: 11-3-1
SU general: 117-76-1

Towards the unfold in Week 13: 9-6
ATS general: 92-95-8 

You will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a kind of issues, he is most likely consuming store-brand froot loops by himself whereas looking out on-line for any merchandise he can discover that options the 1933 Cincinnati Reds.


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