NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Packs’ woes continue; Bills in trouble?

Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season began with the Carolina Panthers knocking off the Atlanta Falcons 25-15 on Thursday night time. Sunday options a number of intriguing video games, together with the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Buffalo Payments and the Dallas Cowboys heading to Lambeau Area to tackle the Inexperienced Bay Packers.

However what does it imply from a betting perspective? And what are the perfect performs that can assist you make good wagering choices?

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Data’s Seth Walder; and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their perception into the video games with suggestions and picks.

Word: Traces from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case indicated.


The Cowboys and Packers face off Sunday afternoon in a battle of two groups apparently heading in reverse instructions. The Cowboys have a 6-2 ATS report, protecting a league-best 75.9%, whereas Inexperienced Bay is 3-6 ATS, failing to cowl in its previous three dwelling video games. The Cowboys (-4.5, 43) enter the Week 10 matchup as the favourite. Who do you want on this matchup, and why?

Kezirian: Final week was put up or shut up for the Packers, and let’s simply say they didn’t put up. Inexperienced Bay now has misplaced 5 straight video games, and whereas a few of these had been winnable, the Packers should not executing for a full 4 quarters. Nevertheless, I’m in no rush to put factors with Mike McCarthy. I’ll play the beneath as a result of till I can safely depend on Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense, I anticipate them to underperform but once more.


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Schatz: This can be a shut one with that unfold, however I’ll go together with the Cowboys -4.5. They’re clearly the higher staff in line with our DVOA scores. Dallas, surprisingly, is all the best way up at No. 3, forward of even Kansas Metropolis in our numbers. The Cowboys are our No. 1 protection to this point this season, however their offense (tenth) can be rated greater than the Packers’ offense (fifteenth). And remember in regards to the Cowboys’ particular groups benefit, the place we’ve them second behind Baltimore, whereas Inexperienced Bay is thirtieth. Will probably be chilly in Inexperienced Bay, however not horrifically chilly, and I feel the Cowboys might be positive with kickoff temperatures above freezing.

Fulghum: I just like the Dallas aspect on this matchup. Coming off the bye, the Cowboys are in a great place to journey to Lambeau and match or exceed market expectations. Their dominant protection will get what has been a simple matchup to this point this season. The Lions’ protection simply held the Packers’ offense to 9 factors in a dome final week. In the meantime, the underachieving Inexperienced Bay protection simply misplaced its most proficient participant in Rashan Gary, making the project even much less imposing for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense. I additionally like this recreation to go beneath the full.

Snellings: I like Dallas -4.5. The Cowboys are taking part in very properly and are one of many high groups within the league. The Packers are on the reverse excessive. The Cowboys are glorious on the bottom, and the Packers battle to cease the run. The Packers are struggling to cross the ball, and the Cowboys have top-of-the-line cross rushes within the league. Although the NFL season has so many matchup vagaries, this looks as if one the Cowboys ought to cowl comfortably.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings journey to Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, to face the Payments in Week 10. With Payments QB Josh Allen listed as questionable due to a proper elbow damage, the Payments are nonetheless 3.5-point favorites heading into Sunday’s matchup. What are your ideas on this matchup, the Vikings this season (+550 to win the NFC, +1600 to win the Tremendous Bowl) and Allen’s MVP probabilities (+225) after being overtaken by Patrick Mahomes (+200) this week?

Kezirian: I might not fear about an damage costing Allen the MVP. Even final yr, Rodgers missed a recreation, and that ended up serving to his MVP case as a result of Inexperienced Bay struggled a lot with out him. The query isn’t whether or not taking part in solely 16 video games will inhibit Allen’s probabilities, however whether or not it is going to restrict him bodily. I’m of the assumption that when he returns, he’ll accomplish that successfully.

Schatz: The Vikings rank solely 18th in our DVOA scores at this level. They’re the second-worst 7-1 staff we have ever tracked, forward of solely the 2000 Vikings staff that finally obtained clobbered by the Giants within the NFC Championship Sport that season. They will win the division, and I even barely favor them with the three.5 factors towards a Payments staff that may possible be beginning Case Keenum, however they don’t seem to be going to win the NFC. Our playoff odds simulation at Soccer Outsiders suggests these Vikings odds needs to be nearer to +1000 to win the NFC and +2800 to win the Tremendous Bowl.

Fulghum: I actually just like the Payments and the beneath on this spot. Minnesota has a pleasant report, however it’s somewhat little bit of smoke and mirrors. Even when Case Keenum is the beginning QB, I belief the Buffalo protection to restrict Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense to an inefficient recreation. Keenum is likely one of the most succesful backups within the NFL, and the take a look at towards the Vikings’ protection is way from imposing. The Vikes are permitting 387.1 YPG (twenty eighth) and 256.9 passing YPG (twenty seventh) this season.

As for the MVP futures market, I now need as a lot Patrick Mahomes as I can get. Tyreek Hill is probably going the midseason award winner for Offensive Participant of the Yr, so the truth that Mahomes misplaced a participant of that caliber from his offense and has nonetheless guided Kansas Metropolis to essentially the most environment friendly and prolific passing assault within the league speaks volumes.

Dolan: Keep away recreation for me. When a line drops from -8.5 to -3.5, it is alarming. On high of that, I’m not certain the Vikings are nearly as good as their 7-1 report displays. Minnesota’s protection ranks twenty second in opponent yards per play, twenty fourth in opponent whole QBR and twenty seventh in opponent passing yards per recreation. The Vikings have been profitable this season towards again up quarterbacks, however the Payments nonetheless have a stout protection. Once more, it is keep away for me.

Snellings: I am additionally staying away from this recreation. I simply do not know what to anticipate with Allen this weekend. I’ll say that his MVP probabilities will take a critical hit if he has to overlook time resulting from damage or if the Payments begin dropping whereas he struggles. So, given what we all know right now, I might say Mahomes is prone to overtake Allen within the MVP race.

What are crucial issues our analytics say?

Walder: There are three video games for which the FPI disagrees with the betting market, however I will offer you just one right here. That is as a result of our quantity for the Payments is assuming Josh Allen performs, whereas the market is clearly not. And, frankly, our quantity for the Seahawks-Buccaneers recreation seems to be wonky, maybe as a result of recreation location in Germany.

However there’s one recreation for which the FPI is unquestionably making a name.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-5, 41.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

FPI prediction: Raiders by 12.7

The FPI’s quantity right here will come down as a result of it does not but replicate the information that Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are headed to injured reserve, and that is hardly trivial. However we’ll nonetheless be greater than the road, and that is with out the FPI figuring out that the Colts made a training change this week. Finally that is about two components: the Raiders being higher than their report — their offense ranks twelfth in EPA per play, for instance — and the Colts beginning Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Due to that, the mannequin believes the Raiders needs to be heavy favorites.

What’s your finest wager for Week 10?

Kezirian: Give me the Seahawks +2.5 towards Tampa, and I consider they win the sport outright. Tom Brady demonstrated some magic in final Sunday’s comeback, however this Bucs offense remains to be fairly weak. Geno Smith nonetheless has critics, however I feel he has been nice this season. Seattle ranks sixth in offensive effectivity, and the playcalling has been super. Tampa has a robust protection, however I’m assured in Seattle’s offense to get the job executed.

Fortenbaugh: Miami staff whole over 26.5 factors. When you eradicate the two.5 video games Miami performed with out quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are averaging a wholesome 27.5 factors per contest because of an offense that may strike from wherever on the sphere. Cleveland is coming off its bye week, however the Browns rank twenty fourth in scoring and nineteenth in opponent yards per play.

Schatz: I will go together with Detroit +3 in Chicago. We’re all enthusiastic about the best way the Bears have lastly unlocked Justin Fields over the previous three weeks, and Chicago ranks ninth in offensive DVOA throughout that point. However the Bears are additionally thirty first in defensive DVOA over that very same interval. With the trades they’ve made, dropping Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, their protection has collapsed. And if we’ll be enthusiastic about how the Bears have been good on offense for 3 weeks, should not we even be excited by how the Lions have performed good protection for the previous three weeks? The Bears like to run, and the Lions held Inexperienced Bay working backs to 66 yards on 21 carries final week. They picked off Aaron Rodgers thrice! It is extra possible that we study extra about these groups from the entire season, not simply the previous three weeks, and in that case the Lions have general been higher, twenty second in DVOA in comparison with twenty eighth for the Bears.

Snellings: Give me Browns-Dolphins over 49. The Dolphins’ offense is nigh unstoppable with everybody wholesome, and Jeff Wilson simply offers them one other dimension. Alternatively, the Dolphins’ protection cannot decelerate anybody. The mixture has already led to a number of high-scoring video games, and this weekend needs to be one other.

What’s your favourite participant prop?

Fulghum: Saquon Barkley over 93.5 dashing yards (-117). The Texans’ run protection is permitting 180.6 yards per recreation to opposing offenses. That is the best mark within the league. Barkley ought to see ample quantity and alternative towards this unit with the Giants working in a pleasant dwelling favourite recreation script.

Dolan: Justin Fields over 58.5 dashing yards (-121) versus Detroit. The Lions quit essentially the most factors within the league and rank thirty first towards the run. Fields has hit over this mark in 4 straight video games and is averaging 69 dashing yards per recreation. He went off final week on the bottom, and I anticipate him to take action once more towards this Detroit protection.

Snellings: I additionally love Fields over 58.5 dashing yards and Saquon Barkley over 93.5 dashing yards, however Erin and Tyler beat me to these. So I will go Derrick Henry over 106.5 dashing yards (-115). Henry is in his unstoppable mode proper now, with 5 straight video games over 100 dashing yards and a mean of 135.6 dashing yards over that stretch. The Broncos’ protection is weaker towards the run, and Henry ought to get his once more this week.

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